The Population Problem

     Terrorism, climate change, and world hunger are but a few of the issues that our political leaders are faced with in the modern era. However, some of these issues have a common underlying factor that largely goes unaddressed and overlooked: overpopulation. In the past, a growing population was a sign of a thriving nation, however in the present, that is no longer the case. Within only the past half century, the world’s population has doubled, and this has led to concerns regarding the effects of humans on the environment, and also to the effects it has on societies and nations. Transcending borders and walls, overpopulation is a problem that affects not only people and nations but also the earth itself.

     Although the modern population growth dilemma arose in the mid-20th century, scholars of the past were able to recognize that population growth could be viewed not only as a sign of prosperity but also as a sign of danger. Famed theorists Charles Darwin, the father of Darwinism and natural selection, and John Keynes, father of the theories of Keynesian economics, were both influenced by an even earlier scholar, Thomas Robert Malthus. Near the end of the 1700s, Malthus published a book titled An Essay on the Principle of Population, in which he argued that the population would outgrow food production and would subsequently result in starvation, famine, and death. Mathematically, he believed that the population growth pattern would be exponential while food production growth pattern would be linear (Malthus 12). Once the population inevitably outgrew the amount of resources available, he hypothesized that the population would naturally reduce itself down to sustainable numbers through “sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague,” or Malthusian catastrophes (Malthus 44). Malthus, however failed to predict agricultural innovations, advancements in medicine and other technological improvements which were able to increase both the population growth rate and food production rate (Pentland). 

     Malthus was however, correct with one claim, and that was his belief that the population grew exponentially. During the mid-1700s, the world population was around 700 million, skip forward to the present day and the current population is over 7 billion (McLamb). In roughly two and a half centuries, the population has increased tenfold. A majority of this growth came within the last half century, where the population more than doubled from 3 billion to 7 billion, and is projected to reach nearly 10 billion within a few decades (Gao). Some high estimates even predict the population to reach 16 billion by the end of the century, more than double the current population (see figure 1).

     A large majority of this growth is expected to come from developing countries. For example, Afghanistan is a developing country whose “political and economic infrastructures are still in the early stages of development,” but it has a population of roughly 27 million that is expected to be “doubled within three decades” (Sharzai). If the population does double, Sharzai notes that it is going to “test the capabilities of Afghan resources and Afghan government.” Having such a large population is straining both on resources and a government's ability to govern, and this is the situation faced by many developing nations. But for developed countries such as the United States, Canada, or Japan, the thought of its population doubling within mere decades is an unimaginable prospect, more so for Japan, one of the few nations who actually has a declining population. In fact, within the next few decades, “28 African countries are projected to more than double, and by 2100, 10 African countries are projected to have increased by at least a factor of five” (UN News Centre). Unlike developed countries who have social and economic policies in place to care for their populations, developing countries are still in the midst of this process and typically do not have the resources necessary to implement them. Population growth in developing countries “[makes] it more difficult to eradicate poverty and inequality, to combat hunger and malnutrition, and to expand educational enrolment and health systems, all of which are crucial…” (UN News Centre). Without these critical things, the population will only continue to grow, and lead to a perpetual cycle.

     Necessary to ensure the survival of the almost 7.5 billion people on earth are finite resources. Water is the most important substance required to live, and even the human body itself is composed mainly of water. Water however, is often unappreciated. Burgers, clothing, plastic bottles, electronic chips; these are but a few things that require “hidden water,” that is “water used to produce things we consume but typically do not think of as containing water” (Emmott). Other materials required to produce the things mentioned above include oil and coal, both non-renewable resources. A majority of these things however, are not only not consumed by those living in developing nations, but also made by them. It is not uncommon for popular clothing or technology brands to have factories in developing nations. With large populations come a large and often cheap source of labor for products enjoyed by those living in developed nations.

     People in developed nations both consume more resources and produce more wastes than people in developing nations by a factor of 32 (Diamond). One of the biggest issues connected to population growth is consumption, or in the case of developed nations, over consumption. The amount of people living in developed countries accounts for only a fraction of the world’s population, but they consume a much more than those who live in developing nations, who often only consume what they need to survive. In his article “The Tragedy of the Commons,” ecologist Garrett Hardin explores the idea that overpopulation itself is not the main issue, but over consumption. He states that “the effects of overgrazing are shared by all the herdsmen,” meaning when one herdsman acts in his own self interest and consumes extra from their shared pool of resource, the commons, all the other herdsmen are affected by it (Hardin 1244). In the global context, the herdsmen overgrazing are those living in first world nations and the commons are the finite resources available. The commons are not restricted to material resources, but also extend to the environment.

     The theory of the tragedy of the commons applies to the environment, in the form of pollution. The thinking behind it is that it is simply cheaper to throw waste into the commons than to spend resources on purifying the waste (Hardin 1246). Hardin also ties the problem of pollution back to population growth, saying that “as population became denser, the natural chemical and biological recycling processes became overloaded” (1246). Smoke stacks emitting harmful gases, factories letting toxic runoff into bodies of water. While it might have been common in the past in developed nations, modern laws prohibit such things. However, in developing nations with their bustling populations, more often than not there are no laws regarding disposal of waste, which results in the pollution of the environment.

     All of the issues I have discussed have been experienced with the population at or less than 7.5 billion, however within the next century, the world’s population is projected to reach nearly 10 billion, or maybe even 16 billion, more than twice the current population (see figure 3); it is of dire importance to remedy this epidemic before the world’s population reaches those levels, else the effects of the previously mentioned issues will become even more devastating. Malthus believed that the human population would become too large for the earth’s natural resources to sustain itself, but what he didn’t account for were advancements in agricultural production and medicine, in other words, technology. Hybrid vehicles, genetically modified food, renewable resources. Innovations such as these are a testament to the technology that proved Malthus wrong, but while technology can create more efficient means, or reduce the amount of waste or materials used, there is a limit to how effective it can be; it does not remedy the issue of finite resources. In an article published by the Proceedings of the Nutrition Society, which is a publisher of scientific research concerned with nutrition in regards to human and animal health, Pete Smith concluded that “technological innovation can no longer be relied upon to prove Malthus wrong as we strive to feed 9–10 billion people by 2050.” We must now think about more sustainable methods of living, and how to manage our demand and consumption of resources (Smith 189).

     While population growth rates have slowed, that does not mean that the world’s population will cease to grow, it is only growing at a slower rate. The few countries with declining populations such as Japan, are outliers and fall out of the normal pattern set by almost every other nation which is still growing. This means the problem of overpopulation will continue to stand either until the population reduces itself, either naturally or through some Malthusian catastrophe, or until we create more sustainable methods of living and reduce our demands on what little resources we have left. If this issue is not resolved, problems affecting not only nations but the entire world will continue to progress until an equilibrium is met.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Works Cited

Diamond, Jared. “What’s Your Consumption Factor?” The New York Times 2 January 2008. Web. 14 April 2016.

Emmott, Stephen. “Humans: the real threat to life on Earth.” The Guardian, 29 June 2013. Web. 17 April 2016.

Gao, George. “Scientists more worried than public about world’s growing population.” Fact Tank 8 June 2015. Pew Research. Web. 12 April 2016.

Hardin, Garrett. “The Tragedy of the Commons.” Science 162.3859 (1968): 1243-1248. Print.

Malthus, Thomas. An Essay on the Principle of Population. 1798. Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, 1998. Web. 12 April 2016.

McLamb, Eric. “The Ecological Impact of the Industrial Revolution.” The Ecology Global Network: 18 September 2011. Web. 12 April 2016.

Pentland, William. “Thomas Malthus: Wrong Yesterday, Right Today?” 9 January 2011, Forbes. Web. 12 April 2016.

Sharzai, Dilawar. “Unchecked Population Growth.” Daily Outlook Afghanistan, 17 August 2011. Web. 12 April 2016.  

Smith, Pete. “Malthus is still wrong: we can feed a world of 9-10 billion, but only be reducing food demand.” Proceedings of the Nutrition Society 74.03 (2014): 187-190 Web. 25 April 2016

https://socialhistory.org/en/exhibitions/neomalthusianisme-en-france/essay-principle-population-1798 <- malthus’s books cover source

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