The Population Problem

     Terrorism, climate change, and world hunger are but a few of the issues that our political leaders are faced with in the modern era. However, some of these issues have a common underlying factor that largely goes unaddressed and overlooked: overpopulation. In the past, a growing population was a sign of a thriving nation, however in the context of the global world, that is no longer the case. Within only the past half century, the world’s population has doubled, and this has led to increasing concerns regarding the effects of humans on the environment, and also to the effects it has on societies and nations. Transcending borders and walls, overpopulation is a problem that affects not only people and nations but also the earth itself.

     Although the modern population growth dilemma arose in the mid-20th century, scholars of the past were able to recognize that population growth could be viewed not only as a sign of prosperity, but also as a sign of danger. Famed theorists Charles Darwin, the father of Darwinism and natural selection, and John Keynes, father of the theories of Keynesian economics, were both influenced by an even earlier scholar, Thomas Robert Malthus. Near the end of the 1700s, Malthus published a book titled An Essay on the Principle of Population (see fig. 1), in which he hypothesized that the world’s population would outgrow its capacity for food production and would subsequently result in starvation, famine, and death, or Malthusian catastrophes. Mathematically, he believed that the population would grow exponentially while food production would increase linearly (Malthus 12). Once the population inevitably outgrew the amount of resources available, he predicted that the population would naturally reduce itself down to sustainable numbers through “sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague” (Malthus 44). Malthus, however failed to predict agricultural innovations, advancements in medicine and other technological improvements which were able to increase both the population growth rate and food production rate (Pentland).

     Malthus was however, correct with one claim, and that was his belief that the population grew exponentially. During the mid-1700s, the world population was around 700 million, skip forward to the present day and the current population is over 7 billion (McLamb). In roughly two and a half centuries, the population has increased tenfold. A majority of this growth came within the last half century, where the population more than doubled from 3 billion to 7 billion, and is projected to reach nearly 10 billion within a few decades (Gerland et al. 234). Some high estimates even predict the population to reach 16 billion by the end of the century, more than double the current population (see fig. 2).

     A large majority of this growth is expected to come from developing countries. For example, Afghanistan is a developing country whose “political and economic infrastructures are still in the early stages of development,” (Sharzai) but it has a population of roughly 27 million that is expected to be doubled within a few decades (Goldstone 3). If the population does double, Sharzai, a writer for an Afghanistan newspaper, notes that it is going to “test the capabilities of Afghan resources and Afghan government.” Having such a large population is straining both on resources and a government's ability to govern, and this is the situation faced by many developing nations. In fact, many nations in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa are growing at a rate of three percent a year, which translates to the population of the nation doubling in roughly twenty-five years (Goldstone 3). One such nation is Nigeria, which is projected to almost triple by the end of the century (see fig. 3). The continent of Africa alone is projected to rise between 3.1 and 5.7 billion people with almost 95% accuracy by the end of the century (Gerland et al. 235). Unlike developed countries who have social, economic, and environmental policies in place, developing countries are still in the midst of this process and typically do not have the resources necessary to implement them. Population growth in developing countries also “[makes] it more difficult to eradicate poverty and inequality, to combat hunger and malnutrition, and to expand educational enrolment and health systems, all of which are crucial…” (United Nations) to the stability and prosperity of a nation. In an article published within the Journal of Economic Literature, Partha Dasgupta notes that studies in certain parts of the world, specifically poor rural regions, show that “population growth, poverty, and degradation of the local environmental resource-base can fuel one another over extended periods of time” (1879-1880). For a developing nation, population growth could lead to a perpetual cycle of adverse effects.

      But for developed countries, such as the United States, Canada, or Japan, the thought of their populations doubling within mere decades is an unimaginable prospect, more so for Japan, one of the few nations who actually has a declining population; however, that doesn’t mean that developed nations are also not to blame. Necessary to ensure the survival of the almost 7.5 billion people on earth are finite resources, one of them being water. Water is the most important substance required to live, and even the human body itself is composed mainly of water. However, it often goes, unappreciated until there becomes a shortage of it. Common uses of water are to drink, clean, and bathe, but it is also present in uncommon areas. Burgers, clothing, plastic bottles, electronic chips; these are but a few things that require “hidden water,” that is “water used to produce things we consume but typically do not think of as containing water” (Emmott). Other materials required to produce the things mentioned above include oil and coal, both non-renewable resources.

     People in developed nations both consume more resources and produce more wastes than people in developing nations by a factor of 32 (Diamond). One of the biggest issues connected to population growth is consumption, or in the case of developed nations, over consumption. The amount of people living in developed countries accounts for only a fraction of the world’s population, but they consume a much more than those who live in developing nations, who often only consume what they need to survive. In his article “The Tragedy of the Commons,” ecologist Garrett Hardin explores the idea that overpopulation itself is not the main issue, but the consumption patterns of the population. He states that “the effects of overgrazing are shared by all the herdsmen,” (Hardin 1244) meaning when one herdsman acts in his own self-interest and consumes extra from the community’s shared pool of resource, the commons, all the other herdsmen are affected by it. But when one herdsmen lets his herd overgraze, others will be tempted to do so as well. In the global context, the overgrazing herdsmen are those living in first world nations and the commons are the finite resources available. However, a counter example that goes against my previous statement would be China. Some classify China as neither a developed nation, nor a developing nation, but as an industrial nation that is in the process of becoming a developed nation. With a population of almost 1.4 billion people, China is striving to become a modernized nation (Peng 582). But as China strives to become a developed nation, their society as well will begin to take on more developed tendencies, mainly consumption tendencies, which could prove to be disastrous when taking into account the fact that China has a population almost four times that of the United States. The commons are not only restricted to material resources, but also extend to the environment.

     The theory of the tragedy of the commons applies to the environment, in the form of pollution. The thinking behind it is that it is simply cheaper to throw waste into the commons than to spend resources on purifying the waste (Hardin 1246). Hardin also ties the problem of pollution back to population growth, saying that “as population became denser, the natural chemical and biological recycling processes became overloaded” (1246). In his research in demography and security, Jack Goldstone also concurs that population growth brings degradation of “forests, water resources, arable land and other resources” (4). Smoke stacks emitting harmful gases and factories letting toxic runoff into bodies of water might have been common in developed nations of the past, but modern laws prohibit such things. However, in developing nations with their bustling populations, more often than not there are no laws regarding disposal of waste, which results in the pollution of the environment. Carbon dioxide, for example, is one such pollutant known as a greenhouse gas, which when emitted, traps heat within the earth’s atmosphere, heating up the earth, contributing to global warming. China is one of the largest emitters of carbon dioxide, and its population of almost 1.4 billion is a large cause behind this, and as I stated earlier, as China continues to modernize and catch up with developed countries, their urbanization and consumption will have an even more detrimental effect on the environment unless they enact policies to combat the negative aspects accompanying modernization (Peng 587).

     Not only can population growth cause damage to the planet, but it can also incite violent conflict between people. In his paper examining the relationship between demographic changes and violence, Jack Goldstone concludes that population growth combined with certain factors can lead to increased risks of conflict, some of which include an expanding agrarian population coming into contact with land controlled by others, an expanding urban population in an economy that cannot facilitate their economic growth, and the migration of peoples into areas already settled by others of a different ethnic or religious identity (14). These situations can be seen in some of the areas I discussed earlier: expanding agrarian populations in Africa and an expanding urban population in China. Although China has slowed its population growth through domestic policies, its large size still results in a large increase of people each year, roughly 13 million, and it is difficult to find employment for such a large number of people (Goldstone 15).

     All of the issues I have discussed have been experienced with the population at or less than 7.5 billion, however within the next century, the world’s population is projected to reach nearly 10 billion, or maybe even 16 billion, more than twice the current population (see figure 2); it is of dire importance to remedy this epidemic before the world’s population reaches those levels, or else the effects of the previously mentioned issues will become even more devastating. Malthus believed that the human population would become too large for the earth’s natural resources to sustain itself, but what he didn’t account for were advancements in agricultural production and medicine, in other words, technology. Hybrid vehicles, genetically modified food, renewable resources. Innovations such as these are a testament to the technology that proved Malthus wrong, but while technology can create more efficient means, or reduce the amount of waste or materials used, there is a limit to how effective it can be. Resources must still be put into the testing and production of new technologies. In an article published by the Proceedings of the Nutrition Society, which is a publisher of scientific research concerned with nutrition in regards to human and animal health, Pete Smith concluded that “technological innovation can no longer be relied upon to prove Malthus wrong as we strive to feed 9–10 billion people by 2050.” We must now think about more sustainable methods of living, and how to manage our demand and consumption of resources (Smith 189).

     While population growth rates have slowed, that does not mean that the world’s population will cease to grow, it is only growing at a slower rate (Goldstone 3). The few countries with declining populations such as Japan, are outliers and fall out of the normal pattern set by almost every other nation which is still growing. This means the problem of overpopulation will continue to stand either until the population reduces itself, either naturally or through some Malthusian catastrophe, or until we create more sustainable methods of living and reduce our demands on what little resources we have left. If this issue is not resolved, problems affecting not only nations but the entire world will continue to progress until an equilibrium is met.

Works Cited

Dasgupta, Partha. “The Population Problem: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Economic Literature 33.4 (1995): 1897-1902. Web. 30 April 2016.

Diamond, Jared. “What’s Your Consumption Factor?” The New York Times. The New York Times, 2 January 2008. Web. 14 April 2016.

Emmott, Stephen. “Humans: the real threat to life on Earth.” The Guardian. The Guardian, 29 June 2013. Web. 17 April 2016.

Gerland, Patrick, et al. “World population stabilization unlikely this century.” Science 346.6206 (2014): 234-237. Web. 30 April 2016.                                                                 Gerland and the other writers of the article present evidence that shows that the world’s population will not stop growing within the century. The main pieces from this source that I will contribute to my paper are the many graphs and statistics regarding population growth. Their statistics also include margins of error which are important when making claims such as mine because they add more credibility to a certain number.

Goldstone, Jack. “Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict.” Journal of International Affairs 56.1 (2002): 3-21. Web. 3 May 2016.     Goldstone explores the complex relationship between population growth and violent conflict. On its own, population growth will not lead to conflict, but combined with specific socioeconomic conditions, it could lead to a higher risk of conflict. He also agrees with the claim that population growth is detrimental to the environment, which I claim in my paper.

Hardin, Garrett. “The Tragedy of the Commons.” Science 162.3859 (1968): 1243-1248. Web. 12 April 2016.                                                                                                           The Tragedy of the Commons is an economic theory regarding resources and human behavior. Hardin writes that people act in their own self-interest and will consume resources for their own gain without thought for others. While Hardin applied this theory to communities, I applied it to the entire human population.

MacRae, Donald Gunn. “Thomas Robert Malthus.” Britannica. Encyclopedia Britannica, 29 January 2015. Web. 4 May 2016.

Malthus, Thomas. An Essay on the Principle of Population. 1798. Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, 1998. Web. 12 April 2016.                                                                   Thomas Malthus was one of the first scholars to hypothesize the issue of overpopulation, which is the basis of my paper. In my paper, I will further explore the consequences of overpopulation in the modern age and try to make educated predictions based on current trends and projected population numbers. I will also account for technological innovations, something Malthus failed to do which led to his ideas being proven wrong.

McLamb, Eric. “The Ecological Impact of the Industrial Revolution.” Ecology. The Ecology Global Network, 18 September 2011. Web. 12 April 2016.

Peng, Xizhe. “China’s Demographic History and Future Challenges.” Science 333.6042 (2011): 581-587. Web. 3 May 2016.

Pentland, William. “Thomas Malthus: Wrong Yesterday, Right Today?” Forbes. Forbes, 9 January 2011. Web. 12 April 2016.

Sharzai, Dilawar. “Unchecked Population Growth.” Daily Outlook Afghanistan, 17 August 2011. Web. 12 April 2016.   

Smith, Pete. “Malthus is still wrong: we can feed a world of 9-10 billion, but only be reducing food demand.” Proceedings of the Nutrition Society 74.03 (2014): 187-190. Web. 18 April 2016

“UN projects world population to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, driven by growth in developing countries.” UN News Centre. United Nations News Centre, 29 July 2015. Web. 12 April 2016